Truth To Power

Truth to Power - Episode 18

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro provide an analysis of the smoke screen the US government is running on #renewableenergy, and what the industry can do about it.
When governments behave like the US administration in choosing to behave towards the trillion-dollar renewable energy industry in the USA, it does not provide confidence to investors who expect a return on their investments.
more than $50 billion in capital that would have been spent in the USA over the past 7 months that has now made it’s way to the UK, Canada, Poland, Denmark and Germany. For someone who seems keen to portray himself as an expert business man, that’s not so clever.
Since the inception of the production and investment tax credits, more than ~$160 billion of taxpayer money has been committed by the government over the past 32 years. That has unlocked more than $250 billion in CapEx for onshore wind energy project development in the USA, as well as $100 billion in capital investments for domestic production of #windturbine components.
It’s also unlocked more than $300 billion in capital in solar project development and factories to produce racks and electrical systems. Energy storage is already at $65 billion and growing according to IntelStor.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in the USA, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 17

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro provides an analysis of the operational impacts for renewable energy assets based on a loss of PTC driven refurbishment & repowering.
Today, some renewable energy asset owners in the USA have enjoyed re- qualifying their projects for PTCs after their first 10 years in operation. This extra PTC revenue led many owners to become highly dependent on PTC revenue as a percentage of total revenue. The average across all wind energy projects in the United States is just under 24%.
That dependency has led to some O&M decisions which are now becoming unviable as the PTC goes away. If some asset owners who over-run their turbines do not change their operational or maintenance habits, they risk being stuck with a fleet they would need to repower without the benefit of a PTC. In order to do that, they will likely have to show their project has already achieved a net positive return on capital, or else get very close to breakeven.
Increasing demand and limited supply of power will make asset refurbishment or repowering more attractive if a PPA can be renegotiated at a higher price, even without the PTC benefit. A desire to lock in a long-term fixed PPA in the face of a potential surge in power prices will lead corporate power buyers to try to firm up more lucrative deals sooner rather than later as they anticipate these price increases.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in the USA, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 16

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro shares some stats on the renewable energy sector in the USA and how the industry can unite to fight the political opposition and protect this trillion dollar industry.
Collectively, the renewable energy sector is already a $1 trillion industry in the USA. The onshore wind energy sector has contributed $246 billion in capital costs to build onshore wind farms in the USA.
The industry now spends $2.75 billion annually in onshore wind farm operations and maintenance costs. IntelStor projects that will increase to more than $3 billion per year by 2030. More than $100 billion has been spent on factories to build wind turbine components in the USA, as well as improve port infrastructure to accommodate receiving.
The $300 billion solar industry and a $65 billion energy storage industry in the USA also continue to be jeopardized with laws and executive orders meant to wantonly and deliberately derail investment.
Nationwide, wind and solar projects alone contribute about $3.5 billion annually in lease or easement payments directly to landowners as well as bolstering state and local tax coffers.
Sadly, the industry has heard very little from several of the industry trade associations and lobby groups who are meant to represent our interests. If fear of retaliation from the US administration is even part of your thought process, then you have no place leading the industry.
But we stand resolved!
The #renewableenergy sector will not let any administration in any country of the world stop or slow down the inevitable energy transition.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in the USA, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode Special

On this special episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro shares an analysis of the proposed changes to the IRS rules for start of construction to qualify for tax credits in the USA.
The biggest change is that there are no more Safe Harbors after 2 September 2025. Project developers can still choose to start construction within the 4 year window allotted under the old IRS rules if they already have Safe Harbor equipment, but they have to maintain "Continuous Construction" (i.e. no stop/start).
For projects which have not already safe harbored, they must start construction by July 4th 2026 and maintain continuous physical construction activity until the project is commissioned by the end of 2027.
Even if you do have Safe Harbored equipment, it doesn’t guarantee that you qualify for tax credits if the county or township your project is in enacts a moratorium, so it's best to start construction work fast. More than 14.5 GW has already safe harbored under the existing IRS rules which are poised to change on September 2nd. The remaining 16.5 GW will need to sign safe harbor agreements before that date or risk exposure to moratoriums.
Other notable changes to the IRS rules around start of construction include this notion of a physical work requirement. Off-site physical work of a significant nature may include the manufacture of components, mounting equipment, or support structures. If wind turbine components and towers are assembled on-site from components that are manufactured off-site by a supplier, then the developer can claim start of construction if two conditions are met.
All in all, this could have been a lot worse, and while biggest impact is the elimination of the elimination of the four-year window under the safe harbor, the net result will actually spur US based component manufacturing.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in the USA, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 15

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro deconstructs the trend in rising O&M costs for wind energy in Australia, and how they compare to other countries around the world.
Australia faces a shortage of workers with the skills to build and maintain wind farms, resulting in higher wages and recruitment costs. Those costs get baked into the prices paid by asset owners for services.
IntelStor took a look at the production adjusted maintenance cost over time for wind energy assets in Australia. While overall maintenance costs are rising, with the new national average at AU$9.22/MWhr, some wind turbine OEMs offer better value for money over a long- term project duration.
Another trend to notice is how quickly the costs escalate. A brand new project will see O&M costs double in just over 10 years in Australia. In markets such as the USA, the maintenance cost peer MWhr produced doubles after 20 years in operation.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in Australia, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 14

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro examine the state of #renewableenergy project development in Mexico and the companies looking to exit and enter the market.
The election of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was supposed to usher in a new era of renewable energy project development in Mexico. The reality has been anything but rosy.
Lack of adequate transmission, long interconnection queues, uncertainty over power offtake by the CFE, as well as legal issues around dispute resolution have led to a chaotic implementation of reforms.
PPA contracts arising from auctions could cover up to 95% of the energy increasing electricity demand. Prices are around $30 / MWhr, but in isolated regions like the peninsula they exceed $100.
By 2030, the country needs to build at least 15,000 kilometers of new trans- mission lines, and while the Electricity Sector Act codifies certain regulations, additional laws are required to define ancillary services or energy storage that would be required to provide the required grid stability.
Ultimately, the Mexican #windenergy sector could help to secure a private investment of more than $6.5 billion in the coming years to support Mexico’s commitments to the Paris Agreement.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in Mexico, or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 13

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro digs into the local moratoriums being put in place that could block renewable energy projects from starting construction in light of the new PTC and ITC qualification criteria in the USA.
 
The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School released an update to their report cataloguing the counties & townships in the USA which have moratoriums or other opposition against renewable energy project development.
 
The report indicates that at the end of 2024 there are now 459 counties and municipalities across 44 states which had adopted severe local restrictions on siting renewables. That’s a 16% increase vs 2023.  There are now 20 significant state level restrictions on renewable energy project siting in 16 states. There are a total of 498 contested renewable energy projects in 49 states.
 
Under the likely changes to the IRS rules for tax credit qualification, the start of construction is likely to combine the safe harbor and physical works requirements. If power generation equipment is not already safe harbored, a moratorium could be used to block the start of physical construction and prevent a developer from claiming tax credits. Developers likely have until the end of 2025 to safe harbor wind turbines or solar panels.
 
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the renewable energy market in the USA, or any other country around the world.
 
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 12

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, IntelStor's Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro deconstructs the recent #renewableenergy asset sales offerings by bp and EDF, including the profitability of those asset portfolios and what they offer to an acquirer.
BP sold off their onshore wind energy asset portfolio to LS Power in the USA. Since 2008, the projects have generated more than $5.5 billion in revenue, including just over $1 billion in Production Tax Credit revenue. All assets have broken even already except Fowler Ridge Phase 2.
The real attraction for LS Power is the net profit to the planned end of asset life, which totals more than $2.6 billion, or just over $1.4 million per installed megawatt.
EDF will offer up their asset portfolio throughout the Americas, hoping to raise at least 2 billion Euros. They have generated $3.3 billion in total revenue including just under $600 million in PTC revenue for the US based assets. 92% of the portfolio revenue is in the USA with the rest in Canada and Brazil.
The portfolio will generate a total net profit to the planned end of asset life of more than $2.6 billion, or over $1.8 million per installed megawatt. Given many of these factors, their 2 billion Euro asking price seems quite fairly valued for investors, according to #IntelStor analysis.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about BP, EDF, or any other asset owner around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 11

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, our Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro looks into the changes to the IRS guidelines in the USA that could impact eligibility for both the investment and production tax credits.
The tax and budget bill which was signed into law on the 4th of July 2025 in the USA has left all #renewableenergy companies reeling a bit. But one of the most profound impacts for #windenergy comes in the from a likely change to the standard definition of the “start of construction” that is used to qualify projects for the production tax credits.
The most likely change to the safe harbor requirement would be to reduce the length of time that you can safe harbor. It’s currently up to 4 years, but that could be significantly reduced. Another likely change will be to combine the safe harbor requirement and the physical work requirement. The current rules make this an either / or situation today, where you can choose one.
As a result of all this, IntelStor expects a surge in corporate power purchase agreements. This will come as a result of some of these legal changes in the PTC eligibility dates as well as the pressure applied to project developers from these anticipated changes in the criteria.
The increasing demand from technology companies and data centers, as well as a desire to lock in a long-term fixed PPA in the face of a potential surge in power prices will lead corporate power buyers to try to lock in more lucrative deals sooner rather than later as they anticipate these price increases.
Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the USA or any other country around the world.
This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn

Truth to Power - Episode 10

On this week’s episode of #TruthtoPower, our Founder & CEO, Philip Totaro tackle the impact of the newly signed tax and budget bill in the USA on the revenue, profitability and growth in the market. The cuts made by the new tax and budget bill in the USA will result in approximately $12 – 16 billion less in revenue to #windenergy asset owners. Of the 62.115 GW of projects installed during 2019 - 2022 that were counting on the full value of the PTC, 5.868 GW of projects, or 9.5% of the installed capacity, were not going to break even during the lifetime of the project already with the full value of the PTC available to them. With the reduction of the PTC, IntelStor projects that there will be a total of more than 18.75 GW of wind energy capacity in the USA that will not achieve a full net positive return on capital prior to the planned end of asset life. Since these projects cannot be repowered between 2028 and 2032, they will be forced to life extend or refurbish. Have a listen today, and get in touch with your best questions about the USA or any other country around the world. This show examines data driven insights for the energy sector, with a focus on renewables. To subscribe to IntelStor Research Notes and get early access to our latest content as well as these Truth to Power weekly editorials, visit https://lnkd.in/grfixJn